Housebuilding starts are recovering, but remain well below their 2023 peak
New homes started, England, 12-month total
Notes: Dots are published figures; straight lines join them. Latest quarter: 35,910 starts in April to June 2026, seasonally adjusted. The 2023 peak and trough reflect starts brought forward ahead of new building regulations. Source: MHCLG Housing supply: indicators of new supply, England (June and September 2026).
What the November Budget does for growth, the public finances and incomes
Figures from the OBR Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2025
Fiscal space before Budget measures, £bn
Notes: Grey needles are previous Budgets and Autumn Statements; hover over a needle to see it. Spring Statements are excluded. Fiscal space is measured against the main fiscal rule in force at each event. Source: OBR fiscal targets tables in each EFO, March 2020 (Table 4.6) to November 2025 (Table 7.1).
Fiscal space before Budget measures, by Chancellor
Fiscal space before Budget measures, £bn
Notes: Where two rules applied, the smaller margin is shown. Earlier events used a structural deficit rule and are not comparable. March 2021 has no usable pre-measures margin. Budgets and Autumn Statements only; Spring Statements are excluded. Source: OBR fiscal targets tables in each EFO, from March 2020 (Table 4.6) to November 2025 (Table 7.1).
What each Budget did to fiscal space
Fiscal space before and after Budget measures, £bn
Notes: Budget effect is the after figure minus the before figure. Hover over a pair to see the rule used. Source: GGF calculations using OBR fiscal targets tables, March 2020 to November 2025 EFOs.
Size of fiscal policy packages, £bn a year in today’s terms
Notes: Grey needles are previous Budgets and Autumn Statements since June 2010; hover over a needle to see it. Spring Statements, spending reviews and the July 2020 Summer Economic Update are excluded. Each package is the OBR's average effect over five years as a share of GDP, converted to £ using 2025-26 nominal GDP of £3,094bn so that events are comparable. Money raised is shown as positive and money spent as negative. Source: GGF calculations using OBR EFO November 2025, Chart 3.1 and Economy Table 1.4.
Notes: Growth in real GDP per person in the final year of each forecast. The dial shows the Budget's effect on that growth, with earlier Budgets as grey needles; hover to see each. The bars show growth before and after measures. Budget effect is the after figure minus the before figure, in percentage points. Before measures is the after figure with the OBR's estimate of the measures' effect on the level of real GDP in the last two forecast years taken out; policy is assumed not to change the population, so the effect on growth per person equals the effect on GDP growth. Only Budgets and Autumn Statements with an OBR estimate of the policy effect on real GDP in our archive are shown, from March 2023. For October 2026 the OBR judged the Budget's measures too small to adjust its growth forecast (EFO paras 2.19 and 3.8), so the effect is zero. Hover over a pair to see the source. Source: GGF calculations using OBR economy tables (Table 1.5) and the OBR's policy impact on real GDP (March 2023 Chart 2.B, November 2023 Chart 2.A, March 2024 Chart 2.A, October 2024 Chart A, November 2025 Chart 3.3; October 2026, no adjustment, EFO paras 2.19 and 3.8).
GDP growth
Real GDP growth, per cent
October 2026 forecastMarch 2026 forecast
Source: OBR EFO October 2026, Chart 2.12 (left-hand panel).
Oil prices
Oil price, dollars a barrel
October 2026 forecastMarch 2026 forecastRange since the Middle East conflict
Notes: The range is the lowest to highest daily price between 2 March and 20 October 2026, as published by the OBR. Source: OBR EFO October 2026, Chart 2.1 (left-hand panel), using Bloomberg.
Gas prices
Gas price, pence a therm
October 2026 forecastMarch 2026 forecastRange since the Middle East conflict
Notes: The range is the lowest to highest daily price between 2 March and 20 October 2026, as published by the OBR. Source: OBR EFO October 2026, Chart 2.1 (right-hand panel), using Bloomberg and Ofgem.
Net additions to the housing stock
November 2025 forecastMarch 2025 forecast
Source: OBR EFO November 2025, Chart 2.22.
Income growth per person
Average growth a year in real household disposable income per person over the previous 10 years, per cent
Notes: Compound average growth over each 10-year period, shown at the period’s end year. October 2026 forecast from 2026-27. Source: OBR EFO October 2026, Chart 2.7, using ONS data.
Notes: Growth in real household disposable income per person in the final year of each forecast. Grey marks are previous Budgets and Autumn Statements since March 2017; hover over a mark to see it. Spring Statements are excluded. Source: GGF calculations using OBR economy tables (Table 1.5) for each Budget and Autumn Statement, March 2017 to November 2025.
Rising prices continue to hold back growth in income per person
Real household disposable income per person
Source: OBR EFO November 2025, Chart 2.16 (right-hand panel).
How long would you need to work to afford these?
November 2025 Budget forecastOctober 2026 forecast
Change since the last Budget
Notes: Replicates the NEF and Best for Britain Attainability Index for 2025 and rolls it forward to 2030-31 twice, with the OBR’s forecasts for hourly earnings and prices at the November 2025 Budget and in the October 2026 forecast. Income tax and National Insurance thresholds stay frozen to 2030-31 in both. A full-time single worker renting a one-bedroom home in the South-east; hours use pay left after tax and essentials, in 2025 prices. Times are totals, not per year. Weeks are 37.5-hour working weeks and years are 52 of them. Source: GGF calculations using the NEF and Best for Britain Attainability Index, ONS ASHE, the Living Wage Foundation and the OBR (economy table 1.6 and Charts 1.2 and 2.4), with prices from the Dark Horse Gig Report, TravelSupermarket, Auto Trader and Bridebook.
Real household disposable income per person, index (2019-20 = 100)
October 2026 forecastMarch 2026 forecast
Notes: Shading shows the gap between this forecast and the previous Budget’s, green where income per person is now higher and orange where it is lower. The previous Budget published income in pounds, so it is shown on this forecast’s index, matched in 2024-25. Source: OBR EFO November 2025, Chart 2.16 (left-hand panel).
Saving rate, unadjusted
November 2025 forecastMarch 2025 forecast
Notes: Unadjusted saving rate. The OBR also publishes a lower rate adjusted for pension equity changes, not shown here. Source: OBR EFO November 2025, Chart 2.17.
Inflation in 2026 is lower after Budget measures than before them
CPI inflation
October 2026 forecastMarch 2026 forecastRange of uncertainty
Notes: Bands run from the 10th to the 90th percentile in steps of 10. Source: OBR EFO November 2025, Charts 1.2 and 2.12.
Tracker maintenance
Click any title, note, poll or chart in the tracker below.
Data
Every dataset the tracker uses. Check whether newer figures have been published, then update the copy held in the repository.
Dataset
Used in
In the tracker now
Latest published
What happens when you update
The update script in the repository downloads the new files and saves them in data/, organised by source and date. It records what it found in data/manifest.json. The tracker itself does not change until you rebuild it in Publish.
Changes for Claude 0
Every change you add in Edit the tracker collects here. Check the list, add anything else, then send it all at once. Claude makes one draft, which appears under Check and commit.
Make a draft
Claude reads the latest data and chart list in the repository, updates the figures, titles and narratives, and saves the result as a draft. The live tracker does not change.
Update to the latest Budget
Use this when the OBR publishes a new Economic and fiscal outlook. It runs Update OBR to download it, then a script updates every OBR figure on the page in about a minute: the Budget page, the OBR lines on the main tracker, the history charts and the Good Growth Score, with all labels and chart numbers. Claude then reviews titles and text. It saves a draft with a list of flags for anything it could not carry over.
Update OBR runs on the office computer, so the runner window needs to be open. The figures are ready about five minutes after the EFO is published; Claude's review then takes roughly 10 to 20 minutes.
Check and commit
Drafts from a rebuild or from Edit the tracker appear here, along with any draft saved in the repository. Open the draft in a new tab to check it. Commit change becomes available once you have opened it.
Where the tracker is saved
Committing saves the new tracker as site/index.html in the repository. If the website loads the tracker from the repository, it updates by itself. If the tracker is pasted into Squarespace, download it and paste it in.
Activity
Every action you start from this page, newest first. Open the details to see exactly what was sent.
Started
Action
Status
Details
Connection
Until a connection is added, the page runs in demo mode: every button works and shows what it would send, but nothing is run.
What the connection needs
The repository needs these workflow files in .github/workflows/, each started on command only:
The Worker checks the password sent from this page, then calls GitHub with its own key. It answers these requests:
POST /dispatch start a workflow {workflow, inputs}
GET /runs latest runs ?workflow=update-ons.yml
POST /requests save a change request {request} then starts claude-edit.yml
GET /file read a repository file ?path=data/status.json
GET /draft read a draft tracker ?branch=draft/2026-10-26T10-28
POST /commit commit a checked draft {branch}
GET /ping check the connection
Commit this change?
The draft replaces site/index.html on the main branch of the repository.
If the website loads the tracker from the repository, the live tracker changes straight away.
You can undo it later by committing an earlier version, but not from this page.
